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President Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs on imported goods, which according to economists will lead to price increases for consumers that could cause inflation to rise and complicate the stabilization of the rate of price growth by the Federal Reserve.
The main indicators of inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, both of which exceed the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. The preferred inflation measure was 2.8% in February, while PCE rose by 2.5%. Inflation data for March is expected to be released this month.
Given that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target level, and policymakers at the central bank are controlling data that indicate inflation is declining to 2%, any increase in inflation data in the coming months could delay the reduction of interest rates.
Tariffs are taxes on imported goods paid by the importing company, in this case, American companies. In most cases, importers pass the cost of tariffs onto consumers in the form of higher prices, although they may incur some expenses due to reduced profits. In rare cases, exporters may lower their prices to assist importers, although their willingness to do so depends on the availability of alternative buyers.
WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP'S 'LIBERATION DAY' TARIFFS
Trump's goal is a 10% tariff on all imported goods and additional reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners, as well as sectorial tariffs, such as a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts which are set to take effect now or soon, with the price increases related to tariffs soon to be reflected in inflation data monitored by the Federal Reserve.
Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Institute, told FOX Business that he expects prices due to tariffs to start rising and affecting inflation data 'in about six weeks.'
'If Trump implements tariffs on cars and reciprocal tariffs in early April, prices on many goods should rise just now. This will be reflected in April's CPI and PCE inflation data, which will be published in May,' he said.
'Each tariff also leads to a one-Time increase in inflation metrics. Therefore, if it rises in April, it will not appear in May's figures. Similarly, if tariffs are withdrawn in the future, this will lead to a one-time decrease in CPI and PCE, rather than a permanent decrease over time,' Young added.
FEDERAL RESERVE LEAVES KEY SPENDING RATE UNCHANGED AMID UNCERTAINTY IN ECONOMY AND INFLATION
Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars and auto parts will take effect on April 3, and this tariff will be quickly passed on to consumers. J.P. Morgan's analysis found that 'due to significant pricing opportunities, automakers will be able to pass most of the tariffs through,' and that these auto tariffs 'are expected to raise vehicle prices by 5%', in addition to already announced tariffs.
'It seems that tariffs will take effect next week, so we believe inflation growth will become evident very soon. We expect that inflation growth will reduce real income growth to less than 1% next quarter, which poses a serious obstacle to consumption growth,' said the analysts.
TRUMP SAYS 'HE VALUES HOW FOREIGN AUTOMAKERS RAISE PRICES DUE TO TARIFFS: 'WE HAVE ENOUGH OF IT'
J.P. Morgan found that since the U.S. imported about $469 billion worth of cars and auto parts, about half of which came from Canada and Mexico, this will lead to an increase in tax burdens by $60-100 billion annually.
The Anderson Economic Group published analysis stating that tariffs on imported cars and auto parts will raise the cost of the cheapest American cars by an additional $2,500 to $5,000, while the price of some imported models could rise by $20,000. Estimates suggest that the total impact on consumers during the first full year will be $30 billion.
Economist Alex Durante from the Financial Reserve wrote in his analysis that 'while additional tariffs will likely raise prices on imported goods, the impact on overall price levels and inflation rates will depend on how the Federal Reserve reacts.'
'Price levels will not rise directly due to tariffs - if businesses or consumers have to pay more for goods with tariffs or more expensive domestic substitutes, they will have less income to spend in other sectors - prices and incomes in other sectors decrease,' he wrote.
'However, if the U.S. sets a high enough tariff, it will also lead to a significant decline in economic activity and thus a significant rise in unemployment. This will be contrary to the Federal Reserve's mandate for full employment and cause them to change monetary policy to raise price levels,' Durante added. 'Instead of rising unemployment, we will see an increase in price levels.'
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'In any case, businesses and workers in the U.S. will suffer more than if the tariffs had not been introduced. The bottom line is that, despite President Trump's claims, Americans will bear the costs of the next trade war in the form of reduced incomes, as tariffs will lead to higher prices on imported goods,' he wrote.
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